April 22, 2016
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 104 | 1 191 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +42 |
Robert Whittaker overcame a 6-fight experience disadvantage (9 vs 15 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Rafael Natal.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 073 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 164 | 1 375 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Robert Whittaker earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 62 | 89 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 137 | 176 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 63 | 92 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 186 | 1 377 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Robert Whittaker controlled the striking exchanges with 92 vs 63 total strikes, 89 vs 62 significant strikes. Robert Whittaker capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 213 | 1 291 |
| ELO Change | -59 | +59 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 84 | 161 |
| Activity ELO | 1 193 | 1 216 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +41 |
Robert Whittaker demonstrated solid activity levels with 161 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Robert Whittaker capitalized on this activity level, while Rafael Natal's 84-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 5 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 103 | 1 159 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +40 |
Robert Whittaker continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Rafael Natal's now at 0.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 072 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.