January 25, 2013
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Sean Spencer |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 041 | 969 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Rafael Natal's 5-fight experience advantage (6 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rafael Natal for the expected result. Had Sean Spencer pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Sean Spencer |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 024 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Sean Spencer |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:13 | 2:13 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 075 | 960 |
| ELO Change | +60 | -40 |
Rafael Natal earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 2:13, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Sean Spencer was submitted.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Sean Spencer |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 64 | 12 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 111 | 84 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 122 | 14 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 040 | 917 |
| ELO Change | +83 | -83 |
Rafael Natal dominated the striking exchanges with 122 vs 14 total strikes, 64 vs 12 significant strikes, 57.7% vs 14.3% accuracy. Rafael Natal capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Sean Spencer |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:42 | 0:11 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 38 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 192 | 836 |
| ELO Change | +164 | -164 |
Rafael Natal dominated Sean Spencer on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 5:42 of control time, 38 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Sean Spencer |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 200 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 038 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -20 |
Rafael Natal demonstrated standard activity with 200 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Rafael Natal capitalized on this activity level, while Sean Spencer's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Sean Spencer |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 032 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -20 |
Rafael Natal started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Sean Spencer is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Sean Spencer |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 024 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.