November 5, 2013
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Tim Kennedy |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 058 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +56 |
Tim Kennedy overcame a 7-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 9 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Rafael Natal.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Tim Kennedy |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 040 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Tim Kennedy |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:40 | 4:40 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 091 | 1 158 |
| ELO Change | -54 | +116 |
Tim Kennedy earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:40, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Tim Kennedy |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 13 | 13 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 35 | 31 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 13 | 13 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 072 | 1 179 |
| ELO Change | -110 | +110 |
Tim Kennedy controlled the striking exchanges, including 1 devastating knockdown. Tim Kennedy capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Tim Kennedy |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 187 | 1 151 |
| ELO Change | -79 | +79 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Tim Kennedy |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 64 | 124 |
| Activity ELO | 1 101 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +55 |
Tim Kennedy demonstrated solid activity levels with 124 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Tim Kennedy capitalized on this activity level, while Rafael Natal's 64-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Tim Kennedy |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 056 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +29 |
Tim Kennedy extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rafael Natal is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Tim Kennedy |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 040 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.