January 30, 2015
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 078 | 966 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Rafael Natal's 6-fight experience advantage (12 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rafael Natal for the expected result. Had Tom Watson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 058 | 970 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 122 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -45 |
Rafael Natal earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 67 | 29 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 152 | 150 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 74 | 33 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 114 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -43 |
Rafael Natal controlled the striking exchanges with 74 vs 33 total strikes, 67 vs 29 significant strikes, 44.1% vs 19.3% accuracy. Rafael Natal capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 8 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 13 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:30 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 205 | 878 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -39 |
Rafael Natal dominated Tom Watson on the ground with 8 vs 0 takedowns, 3:30 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 149 | 169 |
| Activity ELO | 1 164 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -14 |
Rafael Natal demonstrated solid activity levels with 149 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Rafael Natal capitalized on this activity level, while Tom Watson's 169-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 079 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -17 |
Rafael Natal extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tom Watson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 057 | 969 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.