September 3, 2013
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Tor Troeng |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 096 | 994 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Rafael Natal's 6-fight experience advantage (8 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rafael Natal for the expected result. Had Tor Troeng pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Tor Troeng |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 064 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Tor Troeng |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 145 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -37 |
Rafael Natal earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Tor Troeng |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 39 | 9 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 62 | 17 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 57 | 54 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 2 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 182 | 960 |
| ELO Change | +95 | -95 |
Rafael Natal dominated the striking exchanges with 39 vs 9 significant strikes, 62.9% vs 52.9% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Rafael Natal capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Tor Troeng |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 8:04 | 5:05 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 31 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 266 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -40 |
Rafael Natal controlled Tor Troeng on the ground with 8:04 of control time, 31 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Tor Troeng |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 109 | 151 |
| Activity ELO | 1 128 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -17 |
Rafael Natal demonstrated solid activity levels with 109 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Rafael Natal capitalized on this activity level, while Tor Troeng's 151-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Tor Troeng |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 080 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -19 |
Rafael Natal extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tor Troeng is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Tor Troeng |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 064 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.