May 22, 2015
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Uriah Hall |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 110 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -31 |
Rafael Natal's 7-fight experience advantage (13 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rafael Natal for the expected result. Had Uriah Hall pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Uriah Hall |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 077 | 1 008 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Uriah Hall |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 132 | 1 085 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -10 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Rafael Natal receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Uriah Hall |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 45 | 43 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 103 | 74 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 63 | 47 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 141 | 1 112 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Rafael Natal edged the striking exchanges with 43.7% vs 58.1% accuracy. Rafael Natal capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Uriah Hall |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 11 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:55 | 0:52 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 223 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Rafael Natal edged out Uriah Hall on the ground with 1 takedown, 2:55 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Uriah Hall |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | 125 |
| Activity ELO | 1 203 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -16 |
Rafael Natal demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Rafael Natal capitalized on this activity level, while Uriah Hall's 125-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Uriah Hall |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 103 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -19 |
Rafael Natal extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Uriah Hall is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Rafael Natal | Uriah Hall |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 076 | 1 008 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.