September 30, 2011
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Rafaello Oliveira | Yves Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 943 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Yves Edwards's 9-fight experience advantage (14 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Yves Edwards for the expected result. Had Rafaello Oliveira pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Rafaello Oliveira | Yves Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 948 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Rafaello Oliveira | Yves Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:44 | 2:44 |
| Win Type ELO | 936 | 1 212 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +38 |
Yves Edwards gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Rafaello Oliveira | Yves Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 22 | 42 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 117 | 108 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 28 | 55 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 906 | 1 216 |
| ELO Change | -79 | +79 |
Yves Edwards dominated the striking exchanges with 55 vs 28 total strikes, 42 vs 22 significant strikes, 38.9% vs 18.8% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Yves Edwards capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Rafaello Oliveira | Yves Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:43 | 0:35 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 12 |
| Ground ELO | 931 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Yves Edwards landed 2 knockdowns followed by 12 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Rafaello Oliveira | Yves Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 112 |
| Activity ELO | 992 | 1 191 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +30 |
Yves Edwards demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Yves Edwards capitalized on this activity level, while Rafaello Oliveira's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Rafaello Oliveira | Yves Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 953 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +15 |
Yves Edwards started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rafaello Oliveira is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Rafaello Oliveira | Yves Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 948 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

