July 31, 2020
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Randy Brown | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 117 | 1 254 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Vicente Luque's 5-fight experience advantage (15 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Vicente Luque for the expected result. Had Randy Brown pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Randy Brown | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 049 | 1 157 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Randy Brown | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:56 | 4:56 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 274 | 1 496 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +53 |
Vicente Luque gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Randy Brown | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 61 | 64 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 133 | 122 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 66 | 76 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 1 178 | 1 462 |
| ELO Change | -75 | +75 |
Vicente Luque dominated the striking exchanges, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Vicente Luque capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Randy Brown | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:52 | 1:06 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 133 | 1 319 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Vicente Luque landed 2 knockdowns followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Randy Brown | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 259 | 84 |
| Activity ELO | 1 135 | 1 358 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +33 |
Vicente Luque demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 84 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Vicente Luque capitalized on this activity level, while Randy Brown's 259-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Randy Brown | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 069 | 1 223 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +17 |
Vicente Luque extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Randy Brown is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Randy Brown | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 049 | 1 157 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

