November 15, 2019
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Randy Brown | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 141 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -34 |
Randy Brown overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (9 vs 11 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Warlley Alves.
| Metric | Randy Brown | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 065 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Randy Brown | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:22 | 1:22 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 300 | 1 220 |
| ELO Change | +73 | -47 |
Randy Brown earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:22, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Warlley Alves was submitted.
| Metric | Randy Brown | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 16 | 3 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 30 | 11 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 24 | 8 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 253 | 1 133 |
| ELO Change | +58 | -58 |
Randy Brown edged the striking exchanges with 16 vs 3 significant strikes, 53.3% vs 27.3% accuracy. Randy Brown capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Randy Brown | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:12 | 4:18 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 169 | 1 204 |
| ELO Change | +91 | -91 |
Randy Brown controlled Warlley Alves on the ground with 1 takedown, 1:12 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Randy Brown | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 148 | 190 |
| Activity ELO | 1 146 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -23 |
Randy Brown demonstrated solid activity levels with 148 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Randy Brown capitalized on this activity level, while Warlley Alves's 190-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Randy Brown | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 083 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -24 |
Randy Brown extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Warlley Alves is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Randy Brown | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 065 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

