December 10, 2021
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Randy Costa | Tony Kelley |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 967 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +35 |
Tony Kelley overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 5 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Randy Costa.
| Metric | Randy Costa | Tony Kelley |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 977 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Randy Costa | Tony Kelley |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:15 | 4:15 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 042 | 1 112 |
| ELO Change | -53 | +108 |
Tony Kelley gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Randy Costa | Tony Kelley |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 31 | 82 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 65 | 169 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 32 | 129 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 976 | 1 105 |
| ELO Change | -104 | +104 |
Tony Kelley dominated the striking exchanges with 129 vs 32 total strikes, 82 vs 31 significant strikes. Tony Kelley capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Randy Costa | Tony Kelley |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:29 | 3:26 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 23 |
| Ground ELO | 923 | 991 |
| ELO Change | -64 | +64 |
Tony Kelley controlled Randy Costa on the ground with 3:26 of control time, 23 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Randy Costa | Tony Kelley |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 141 | 428 |
| Activity ELO | 993 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +15 |
Tony Kelley demonstrated extended layoff with 428 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Tony Kelley capitalized on this activity level, while Randy Costa's 141-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Randy Costa | Tony Kelley |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 983 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +25 |
Tony Kelley extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Randy Costa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Randy Costa | Tony Kelley |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 977 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.