July 8, 2016
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Raphael Assuncao | TJ Dillashaw |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 152 | 1 199 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
TJ Dillashaw's 3-fight experience advantage (12 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding TJ Dillashaw for the expected result. Had Raphael Assuncao pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Raphael Assuncao | TJ Dillashaw |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 105 | 1 230 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Raphael Assuncao | TJ Dillashaw |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 256 | 1 475 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
TJ Dillashaw earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Raphael Assuncao | TJ Dillashaw |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 49 | 64 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 140 | 195 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 52 | 72 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 270 | 1 475 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
TJ Dillashaw controlled the striking exchanges with 72 vs 52 total strikes, 64 vs 49 significant strikes. TJ Dillashaw capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Raphael Assuncao | TJ Dillashaw |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:02 | 0:49 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 297 | 1 414 |
| ELO Change | -61 | +61 |
TJ Dillashaw controlled Raphael Assuncao on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:49 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Raphael Assuncao | TJ Dillashaw |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 644 | 174 |
| Activity ELO | 1 188 | 1 290 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +31 |
TJ Dillashaw demonstrated solid activity levels with 174 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, TJ Dillashaw capitalized on this activity level, while Raphael Assuncao's 644-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Raphael Assuncao | TJ Dillashaw |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 181 | 1 173 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +27 |
TJ Dillashaw started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Raphael Assuncao is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Raphael Assuncao | TJ Dillashaw |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 098 | 1 123 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.