February 1, 2013
Light Heavyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 16 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 10 | -10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 265 | 1 232 |
| ELO Change | -44 | +74 |
Rogerio Nogueira overcame a 10-fight experience disadvantage (6 vs 16 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Rashad Evans.
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 213 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 437 | 1 316 |
| ELO Change | -69 | +69 |
Rogerio Nogueira earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 22 | 40 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 81 | 152 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 22 | 40 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 383 | 1 347 |
| ELO Change | -52 | +52 |
Rogerio Nogueira controlled the striking exchanges with 40 vs 22 significant strikes. Rogerio Nogueira capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:15 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 465 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +39 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 288 | 420 |
| Activity ELO | 1 334 | 1 102 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +32 |
Rogerio Nogueira demonstrated extended layoff with 420 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Rogerio Nogueira capitalized on this activity level, while Rashad Evans's 288-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 216 | 1 089 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +38 |
Rogerio Nogueira extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rashad Evans is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 156 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.