October 2, 2015
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 19 | 17 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 275 | 1 290 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +42 |
Ryan Bader overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (17 vs 19 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Rashad Evans.
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 217 | 1 184 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 466 | 1 468 |
| ELO Change | -55 | +55 |
Ryan Bader earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 25 | 52 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 111 | 133 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 27 | 55 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 447 | 1 402 |
| ELO Change | -59 | +59 |
Ryan Bader controlled the striking exchanges with 55 vs 27 total strikes, 52 vs 25 significant strikes, 39.1% vs 22.5% accuracy. Ryan Bader capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:56 | 1:04 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 511 | 1 493 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Ryan Bader did not secure a significant ground advantage against Rashad Evans on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:04 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 686 | 252 |
| Activity ELO | 1 374 | 1 370 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +31 |
Ryan Bader demonstrated standard activity with 252 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Ryan Bader capitalized on this activity level, while Rashad Evans's 686-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 5 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 227 | 1 250 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +45 |
Ryan Bader continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Rashad Evans's now at 0.
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 166 | 1 171 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.