August 4, 2017
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 22 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | 10 | -10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 163 | 1 197 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +63 |
Sam Alvey overcame a 10-fight experience disadvantage (12 vs 22 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Rashad Evans.
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 136 | 1 091 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 393 | 1 297 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Sam Alvey receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 17 | 40 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 45 | 87 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 28 | 51 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 245 | 1 243 |
| ELO Change | -53 | +53 |
Sam Alvey controlled the striking exchanges with 51 vs 28 total strikes, 40 vs 17 significant strikes, 46.0% vs 37.8% accuracy. Sam Alvey capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 8 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:29 | 0:05 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 382 | 1 216 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Sam Alvey did not secure a significant ground advantage against Rashad Evans on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 154 | 105 |
| Activity ELO | 1 295 | 1 363 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +53 |
Sam Alvey demonstrated solid activity levels with 105 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Sam Alvey capitalized on this activity level, while Rashad Evans's 154-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 150 | 1 125 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +28 |
Sam Alvey started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rashad Evans is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 093 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.