January 24, 2007
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Sean Salmon |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 147 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Rashad Evans's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rashad Evans for the expected result. Had Sean Salmon pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Sean Salmon |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 100 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Sean Salmon |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:06 | 1:06 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 215 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -23 |
Rashad Evans gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Sean Salmon |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 13 | 10 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 35 | 28 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 13 | 15 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 281 | 966 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Rashad Evans controlled the striking exchanges, including 1 devastating knockdown. Rashad Evans capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Sean Salmon |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:02 | 0:52 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 358 | 995 |
| ELO Change | +5 | -5 |
Rashad Evans landed 1 knockdown followed by 1 ground strike. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Sean Salmon |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 125 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 223 | 990 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -10 |
Rashad Evans demonstrated solid activity levels with 125 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Rashad Evans capitalized on this activity level, while Sean Salmon's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Sean Salmon |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 5 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 133 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -15 |
Rashad Evans continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Sean Salmon's now at 0.
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Sean Salmon |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 100 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

