January 1, 2010
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Thiago Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 266 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Rashad Evans's 4-fight experience advantage (11 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rashad Evans for the expected result. Had Thiago Silva pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Thiago Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 212 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Thiago Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 432 | 1 293 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Rashad Evans earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Thiago Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 12 | 31 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 66 | 84 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 21 | 67 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 292 | 1 212 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Thiago Silva controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (67 vs 21 total strikes), significant strike advantage (31 vs 12), superior accuracy (36.9% vs 18.2%). However, since Thiago Silva lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Rashad Evans's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Thiago Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 8 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 16 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:14 | 0:14 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 438 | 1 112 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -45 |
Rashad Evans dominated Thiago Silva on the ground with 8 vs 0 takedowns, 7:14 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Thiago Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 225 | 127 |
| Activity ELO | 1 321 | 1 152 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -13 |
Rashad Evans demonstrated standard activity with 225 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Rashad Evans capitalized on this activity level, while Thiago Silva's 127-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Thiago Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 210 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -16 |
Rashad Evans started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Thiago Silva is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Rashad Evans | Thiago Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 160 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.