December 10, 2021
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Raulian Paiva | Sean O'Malley |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 050 | 1 207 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Sean O'Malley's 2-fight experience advantage (8 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Sean O'Malley for the expected result. Had Raulian Paiva pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Raulian Paiva | Sean O'Malley |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 013 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Raulian Paiva | Sean O'Malley |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:42 | 4:42 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 090 | 1 368 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +40 |
Sean O'Malley earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:42, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Raulian Paiva | Sean O'Malley |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 11 | 39 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 47 | 62 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 11 | 40 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 037 | 1 394 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Sean O'Malley controlled the striking exchanges with 40 vs 11 total strikes, 39 vs 11 significant strikes, 62.9% vs 23.4% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Sean O'Malley capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Raulian Paiva | Sean O'Malley |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 029 | 1 174 |
| ELO Change | -44 | +44 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Raulian Paiva | Sean O'Malley |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 141 | 155 |
| Activity ELO | 1 042 | 1 202 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +24 |
Sean O'Malley demonstrated solid activity levels with 155 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Sean O'Malley capitalized on this activity level, while Raulian Paiva's 141-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Raulian Paiva | Sean O'Malley |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 029 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +22 |
Sean O'Malley extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Raulian Paiva is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Raulian Paiva | Sean O'Malley |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 013 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

