July 10, 2020
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Raulian Paiva | Zhalgas Zhumagulov |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 031 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Raulian Paiva's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Raulian Paiva for the expected result. Had Zhalgas Zhumagulov pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Raulian Paiva | Zhalgas Zhumagulov |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 005 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Raulian Paiva | Zhalgas Zhumagulov |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 087 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Raulian Paiva earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Raulian Paiva | Zhalgas Zhumagulov |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 52 | 66 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 121 | 119 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 56 | 73 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 052 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Zhalgas Zhumagulov controlled the striking through superior volume (73 vs 56 total strikes), significant strike advantage (66 vs 52), superior accuracy (55.5% vs 43.0%). However, since Zhalgas Zhumagulov lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Raulian Paiva's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Raulian Paiva | Zhalgas Zhumagulov |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 11 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:43 | 0:29 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 021 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Raulian Paiva did not secure a significant ground advantage against Zhalgas Zhumagulov on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:43 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Raulian Paiva | Zhalgas Zhumagulov |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 147 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 034 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -22 |
Raulian Paiva demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Raulian Paiva capitalized on this activity level, while Zhalgas Zhumagulov's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Raulian Paiva | Zhalgas Zhumagulov |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 013 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -22 |
Raulian Paiva extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Zhalgas Zhumagulov is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Raulian Paiva | Zhalgas Zhumagulov |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 005 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

