May 28, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Rick Story | Tarec Saffiedine |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 18 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 14 | -14 |
| Experience ELO | 1 184 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Rick Story's 14-fight experience advantage (18 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rick Story for the expected result. Had Tarec Saffiedine pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Rick Story | Tarec Saffiedine |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 109 | 1 016 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Rick Story | Tarec Saffiedine |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 311 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Rick Story earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Rick Story | Tarec Saffiedine |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 58 | 32 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 111 | 71 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 97 | 47 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 350 | 1 142 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Rick Story dominated the striking exchanges with 97 vs 47 total strikes, 58 vs 32 significant strikes. Rick Story capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Rick Story | Tarec Saffiedine |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 6:55 | 0:37 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 321 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
Rick Story edged out Tarec Saffiedine on the ground with 6:55 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Rick Story | Tarec Saffiedine |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 603 | 120 |
| Activity ELO | 1 270 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | +8 | -9 |
Rick Story demonstrated extended layoff with 603 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Rick Story capitalized on this activity level, while Tarec Saffiedine's 120-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Rick Story | Tarec Saffiedine |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 171 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -15 |
Rick Story extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tarec Saffiedine is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Rick Story | Tarec Saffiedine |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 109 | 1 016 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.