February 10, 2017
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Roan Carneiro | Ryan LaFlare |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 032 | 1 219 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +22 |
Ryan LaFlare overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (7 vs 9 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Roan Carneiro.
| Metric | Roan Carneiro | Ryan LaFlare |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 997 | 1 105 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Roan Carneiro | Ryan LaFlare |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 139 | 1 252 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Ryan LaFlare earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Roan Carneiro | Ryan LaFlare |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 19 | 29 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 50 | 91 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 25 | 51 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 001 | 1 248 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Ryan LaFlare controlled the striking exchanges with 51 vs 25 total strikes, 29 vs 19 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Ryan LaFlare capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Roan Carneiro | Ryan LaFlare |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:53 | 5:09 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 1 090 | 1 265 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Ryan LaFlare landed 1 knockdown followed by 7 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Roan Carneiro | Ryan LaFlare |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 148 | 428 |
| Activity ELO | 1 033 | 1 236 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +10 |
Ryan LaFlare demonstrated extended layoff with 428 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Ryan LaFlare capitalized on this activity level, while Roan Carneiro's 148-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Roan Carneiro | Ryan LaFlare |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 010 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +19 |
Ryan LaFlare extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Roan Carneiro is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Roan Carneiro | Ryan LaFlare |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 997 | 1 105 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.