September 5, 2008
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Roan Carneiro | Ryo Chonan |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 955 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +38 |
Ryo Chonan overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 5 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Roan Carneiro.
| Metric | Roan Carneiro | Ryo Chonan |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 981 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Roan Carneiro | Ryo Chonan |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 055 | 996 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Ryo Chonan receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Roan Carneiro | Ryo Chonan |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 18 | 23 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 38 | 58 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 68 | 72 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 989 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Ryo Chonan slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 23 vs 18 significant strikes. Ryo Chonan capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Roan Carneiro | Ryo Chonan |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:19 | 7:40 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 10 | 15 |
| Ground ELO | 1 037 | 1 013 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Ryo Chonan slightly outworked Roan Carneiro on the ground with 0 takedowns, 7:40 of control time, 15 ground strikes, earning modest grappling bonuses.
| Metric | Roan Carneiro | Ryo Chonan |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 91 | 294 |
| Activity ELO | 997 | 1 013 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Ryo Chonan demonstrated standard activity with 294 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Ryo Chonan capitalized on this activity level, while Roan Carneiro's 91-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Roan Carneiro | Ryo Chonan |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 986 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +25 |
Ryo Chonan started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Roan Carneiro is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Roan Carneiro | Ryo Chonan |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 981 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.