December 28, 2007
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Roan Carneiro | Tony DeSouza |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 070 | 953 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -26 |
Roan Carneiro overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 6 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Tony DeSouza.
| Metric | Roan Carneiro | Tony DeSouza |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 026 | 994 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Roan Carneiro | Tony DeSouza |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:33 | 3:33 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 124 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | +98 | -48 |
Roan Carneiro gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Roan Carneiro | Tony DeSouza |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 24 | 9 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 27 | 15 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 73 | 37 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 047 | 785 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -39 |
Roan Carneiro controlled the striking exchanges with 73 vs 37 total strikes, 24 vs 9 significant strikes, 88.9% vs 60.0% accuracy. Roan Carneiro capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Roan Carneiro | Tony DeSouza |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:47 | 2:18 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 14 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 136 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | +65 | -65 |
Roan Carneiro controlled Tony DeSouza on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 4:47 of control time, 14 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Roan Carneiro | Tony DeSouza |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 201 | 364 |
| Activity ELO | 1 044 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -25 |
Roan Carneiro demonstrated standard activity with 201 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Roan Carneiro capitalized on this activity level, while Tony DeSouza's 364-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Roan Carneiro | Tony DeSouza |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 031 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -22 |
Roan Carneiro started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tony DeSouza is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Roan Carneiro | Tony DeSouza |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 026 | 994 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.