September 1, 2017
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Rob Wilkinson | Siyar Bahadurzada |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 976 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Siyar Bahadurzada's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Siyar Bahadurzada for the expected result. Had Rob Wilkinson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Rob Wilkinson | Siyar Bahadurzada |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Rob Wilkinson | Siyar Bahadurzada |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:10 | 3:10 |
| Win Type ELO | 976 | 1 207 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +49 |
Siyar Bahadurzada gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Rob Wilkinson | Siyar Bahadurzada |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 24 | 43 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 46 | 81 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 34 | 44 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 3 |
| Striking ELO | 904 | 1 241 |
| ELO Change | -96 | +96 |
Siyar Bahadurzada dominated the striking exchanges with 43 vs 24 significant strikes, including 3 devastating knockdowns. Siyar Bahadurzada capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Rob Wilkinson | Siyar Bahadurzada |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:18 | 0:29 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 11 |
| Ground ELO | 983 | 1 157 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Siyar Bahadurzada landed 3 knockdowns followed by 11 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Rob Wilkinson | Siyar Bahadurzada |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 546 |
| Activity ELO | 980 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +18 |
Siyar Bahadurzada demonstrated extended layoff with 546 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Siyar Bahadurzada capitalized on this activity level, while Rob Wilkinson's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Rob Wilkinson | Siyar Bahadurzada |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 980 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +24 |
Siyar Bahadurzada extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rob Wilkinson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Rob Wilkinson | Siyar Bahadurzada |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

