July 10, 2015
UFC Welterweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Robbie Lawler | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 293 | 1 260 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Robbie Lawler's 3-fight experience advantage (15 vs 12 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Robbie Lawler for the expected result. Had Rory MacDonald pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Robbie Lawler | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 251 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -18 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Robbie Lawler captured the UFC Welterweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Robbie Lawler | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 1:00 | 1:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 532 | 1 425 |
| ELO Change | +91 | -45 |
Robbie Lawler gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 5, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Robbie Lawler | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 70 | 86 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 156 | 222 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 76 | 87 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 537 | 1 332 |
| ELO Change | +68 | -68 |
Rory MacDonald controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (86 vs 70). However, since Rory MacDonald lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Robbie Lawler's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Robbie Lawler | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:11 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 409 | 1 349 |
| ELO Change | +62 | -62 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Robbie Lawler | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 217 | 280 |
| Activity ELO | 1 398 | 1 284 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -16 |
Robbie Lawler demonstrated standard activity with 217 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Robbie Lawler capitalized on this activity level, while Rory MacDonald's 280-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Robbie Lawler | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 224 | 1 180 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -21 |
Robbie Lawler extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rory MacDonald is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Robbie Lawler | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 158 | 1 128 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.