July 5, 2013
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Roger Gracie | Tim Kennedy |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Roger Gracie | Tim Kennedy |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Roger Gracie | Tim Kennedy |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 958 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +42 |
Tim Kennedy earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Roger Gracie | Tim Kennedy |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 12 | 54 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 29 | 92 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 14 | 101 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 931 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | -69 | +69 |
Tim Kennedy dominated the striking exchanges with 101 vs 14 total strikes, 54 vs 12 significant strikes, 58.7% vs 41.4% accuracy. Tim Kennedy capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Roger Gracie | Tim Kennedy |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:26 | 6:11 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 11 |
| Ground ELO | 928 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | -72 | +72 |
Tim Kennedy controlled Roger Gracie on the ground with 2 takedowns, 6:11 of control time, 11 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Roger Gracie | Tim Kennedy |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Tim Kennedy demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Tim Kennedy capitalized on this activity level, while Roger Gracie's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Roger Gracie | Tim Kennedy |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 979 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Tim Kennedy started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Roger Gracie is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Roger Gracie | Tim Kennedy |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.