September 25, 2015
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Roger Zapata | Shinsho Anzai |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 967 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Roger Zapata | Shinsho Anzai |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 978 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Roger Zapata | Shinsho Anzai |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 0:47 | 0:47 |
| Win Type ELO | 972 | 986 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Shinsho Anzai gained a finish with a TKO - Doctor's Stoppage in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Roger Zapata | Shinsho Anzai |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 28 | 23 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 54 | 36 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 53 | 49 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 974 | 941 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Roger Zapata controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (28 vs 23), superior accuracy (51.9% vs 63.9%). However, since Roger Zapata lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Shinsho Anzai's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Roger Zapata | Shinsho Anzai |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 11 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:24 | 6:55 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 949 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -51 | +51 |
Shinsho Anzai edged out Roger Zapata on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 6:55 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Roger Zapata | Shinsho Anzai |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 399 |
| Activity ELO | 978 | 999 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +20 |
Shinsho Anzai demonstrated extended layoff with 399 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Shinsho Anzai capitalized on this activity level, while Roger Zapata's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Roger Zapata | Shinsho Anzai |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 978 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +24 |
Shinsho Anzai started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Roger Zapata is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Roger Zapata | Shinsho Anzai |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 978 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.