November 18, 2016
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Rogerio Nogueira | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 20 |
| Experience Gap | -10 | 10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 154 | 1 293 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Ryan Bader's 10-fight experience advantage (20 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Ryan Bader for the expected result. Had Rogerio Nogueira pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Rogerio Nogueira | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 039 | 1 189 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Rogerio Nogueira | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 3:51 | 3:51 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 296 | 1 540 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +45 |
Ryan Bader gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Rogerio Nogueira | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 86 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 12 | 116 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 12 | 129 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 191 | 1 485 |
| ELO Change | -87 | +87 |
Ryan Bader dominated the striking exchanges with 129 vs 12 total strikes, 86 vs 3 significant strikes, 74.1% vs 25.0% accuracy. Ryan Bader capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Rogerio Nogueira | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 11:20 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 77 |
| Ground ELO | 1 076 | 1 444 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Ryan Bader dominated Rogerio Nogueira on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 11:20 of control time, 77 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Rogerio Nogueira | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 190 | 78 |
| Activity ELO | 1 090 | 1 382 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +23 |
Ryan Bader demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 78 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Ryan Bader capitalized on this activity level, while Rogerio Nogueira's 190-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Rogerio Nogueira | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 058 | 1 252 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +14 |
Ryan Bader extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rogerio Nogueira is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Rogerio Nogueira | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 029 | 1 177 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.