May 10, 2019
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Rogerio Nogueira | Ryan Spann |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 10 | -10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 148 | 1 131 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +71 |
Ryan Spann overcame a 10-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 12 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Rogerio Nogueira.
| Metric | Rogerio Nogueira | Ryan Spann |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 040 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Rogerio Nogueira | Ryan Spann |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:07 | 2:07 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 304 | 1 206 |
| ELO Change | -73 | +165 |
Ryan Spann earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:07, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Rogerio Nogueira | Ryan Spann |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 13 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 24 | 32 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 6 | 13 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 122 | 1 194 |
| ELO Change | -175 | +175 |
Ryan Spann controlled the striking exchanges with 13 vs 6 significant strikes, 40.6% vs 25.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Ryan Spann capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Rogerio Nogueira | Ryan Spann |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:44 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 066 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | -79 | +79 |
Ryan Spann landed 1 knockdown followed by 3 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Rogerio Nogueira | Ryan Spann |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 231 | 231 |
| Activity ELO | 1 094 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +34 |
Ryan Spann demonstrated standard activity with 231 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Ryan Spann capitalized on this activity level, while Rogerio Nogueira's 231-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Rogerio Nogueira | Ryan Spann |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 061 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +30 |
Ryan Spann extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rogerio Nogueira is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Rogerio Nogueira | Ryan Spann |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 031 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.