September 21, 2018
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Rogerio Nogueira | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 16 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 191 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -28 |
Rogerio Nogueira overcame a 5-fight experience disadvantage (11 vs 16 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Sam Alvey.
| Metric | Rogerio Nogueira | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 064 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Rogerio Nogueira | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:00 | 1:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 377 | 1 235 |
| ELO Change | +81 | -39 |
Rogerio Nogueira gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Rogerio Nogueira | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 26 | 34 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 52 | 82 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 26 | 34 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 297 | 1 179 |
| ELO Change | +106 | -106 |
Sam Alvey controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (34 vs 26). However, since Sam Alvey lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Rogerio Nogueira's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Rogerio Nogueira | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:03 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 145 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | +69 | -69 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Rogerio Nogueira | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 672 | 113 |
| Activity ELO | 1 121 | 1 322 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -35 |
Rogerio Nogueira demonstrated extended layoff with 672 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Rogerio Nogueira capitalized on this activity level, while Sam Alvey's 113-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Rogerio Nogueira | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 086 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -25 |
Rogerio Nogueira started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Sam Alvey is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Rogerio Nogueira | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 054 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.