June 17, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Rory MacDonald | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 228 | 1 295 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +41 |
Stephen Thompson overcame a 4-fight experience disadvantage (9 vs 13 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Rory MacDonald.
| Metric | Rory MacDonald | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 111 | 1 151 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Rory MacDonald | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 394 | 1 553 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Stephen Thompson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Rory MacDonald | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 61 | 110 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 152 | 259 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 62 | 124 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 317 | 1 592 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
Stephen Thompson dominated the striking exchanges with 124 vs 62 total strikes, 110 vs 61 significant strikes. Stephen Thompson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Rory MacDonald | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:08 | 1:48 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 314 | 1 345 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Stephen Thompson slightly outworked Rory MacDonald on the ground with 1:48 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning modest grappling bonuses.
| Metric | Rory MacDonald | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 343 | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 1 258 | 1 259 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +51 |
Stephen Thompson demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Stephen Thompson capitalized on this activity level, while Rory MacDonald's 343-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Rory MacDonald | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 7 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 161 | 1 270 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +55 |
Stephen Thompson continued building serious momentum with a 7-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Rory MacDonald's now at 0.
| Metric | Rory MacDonald | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 107 | 1 149 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

