October 3, 2014
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Rory MacDonald | Tarec Saffiedine |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 9 | -9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 295 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
Rory MacDonald's 9-fight experience advantage (11 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rory MacDonald for the expected result. Had Tarec Saffiedine pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Rory MacDonald | Tarec Saffiedine |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 150 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Rory MacDonald | Tarec Saffiedine |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:28 | 1:28 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 470 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -8 |
Rory MacDonald gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Rory MacDonald | Tarec Saffiedine |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 47 | 42 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 111 | 136 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 48 | 42 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 400 | 1 133 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -48 |
Rory MacDonald controlled the striking exchanges with 47 vs 42 significant strikes, 42.3% vs 30.9% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Rory MacDonald capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Rory MacDonald | Tarec Saffiedine |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:20 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 7 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 411 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
Rory MacDonald landed 1 knockdown followed by 7 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Rory MacDonald | Tarec Saffiedine |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | 273 |
| Activity ELO | 1 300 | 1 016 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -8 |
Rory MacDonald demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Rory MacDonald capitalized on this activity level, while Tarec Saffiedine's 273-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Rory MacDonald | Tarec Saffiedine |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 201 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -12 |
Rory MacDonald extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tarec Saffiedine is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Rory MacDonald | Tarec Saffiedine |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 150 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.