July 12, 2024
Women's Flyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Rose Namajunas | Tracy Cortez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 16 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 10 | -10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 247 | 1 145 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Rose Namajunas's 10-fight experience advantage (16 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rose Namajunas for the expected result. Had Tracy Cortez pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Rose Namajunas | Tracy Cortez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 295 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -11 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Rose Namajunas | Tracy Cortez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 406 | 1 150 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Rose Namajunas earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Rose Namajunas | Tracy Cortez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 96 | 58 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 180 | 198 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 119 | 85 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 385 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Rose Namajunas controlled the striking exchanges with 119 vs 85 total strikes, 96 vs 58 significant strikes, 53.3% vs 29.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Rose Namajunas capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Rose Namajunas | Tracy Cortez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 5 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 6:36 | 0:58 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 427 | 1 219 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -43 |
Rose Namajunas controlled Tracy Cortez on the ground with 5 vs 2 takedowns, 6:36 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Rose Namajunas | Tracy Cortez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | 301 |
| Activity ELO | 1 258 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -14 |
Rose Namajunas demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Rose Namajunas capitalized on this activity level, while Tracy Cortez's 301-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Rose Namajunas | Tracy Cortez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 193 | 1 114 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -19 |
Rose Namajunas extended her 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tracy Cortez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Rose Namajunas | Tracy Cortez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 139 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.