November 5, 2021
UFC Women's Strawweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Rose Namajunas | Zhang Weili |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 264 | 1 186 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Rose Namajunas's 5-fight experience advantage (12 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rose Namajunas for the expected result. Had Zhang Weili pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Rose Namajunas | Zhang Weili |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 338 | 1 190 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -16 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Rose Namajunas captured the UFC Women's Strawweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Rose Namajunas | Zhang Weili |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 435 | 1 282 |
| ELO Change | +7 | -7 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Rose Namajunas receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Rose Namajunas | Zhang Weili |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 86 | 83 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 168 | 173 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 130 | 162 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 405 | 1 255 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
Zhang Weili controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (162 vs 130 total strikes). However, since Zhang Weili lost the overall fight, her striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Rose Namajunas's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Rose Namajunas | Zhang Weili |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 5 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 11 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:00 | 3:37 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 20 | 14 |
| Ground ELO | 1 480 | 1 250 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Rose Namajunas edged out Zhang Weili on the ground with 2 takedowns, 7:00 of control time, 20 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Rose Namajunas | Zhang Weili |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 197 | 197 |
| Activity ELO | 1 246 | 1 156 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -18 |
Rose Namajunas demonstrated standard activity with 197 days since her last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Rose Namajunas capitalized on this activity level, while Zhang Weili's 197-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Rose Namajunas | Zhang Weili |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 197 | 1 122 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -19 |
Rose Namajunas extended her 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Zhang Weili is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Rose Namajunas | Zhang Weili |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 144 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.