March 30, 2010
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Roy Nelson | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 065 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -37 |
Roy Nelson overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 5 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Stefan Struve.
| Metric | Roy Nelson | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 043 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Roy Nelson | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:39 | 0:39 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 212 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | +122 | -46 |
Roy Nelson secured a devastating KO/TKO in 0:39 of round 1. This explosive first-minute finish earned substantial bonus rewards for the exceptional performance.
| Metric | Roy Nelson | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 9 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 15 | 5 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 9 | 2 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 183 | 911 |
| ELO Change | +99 | -99 |
Roy Nelson controlled the striking exchanges with 9 vs 2 significant strikes, 60.0% vs 40.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Roy Nelson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Roy Nelson | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:08 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 122 | 1 048 |
| ELO Change | +60 | -60 |
Roy Nelson landed 1 knockdown followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Roy Nelson | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 116 | 109 |
| Activity ELO | 1 096 | 1 152 |
| ELO Change | +75 | -30 |
Roy Nelson demonstrated solid activity levels with 116 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Roy Nelson capitalized on this activity level, while Stefan Struve's 109-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Roy Nelson | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 051 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -23 |
Roy Nelson extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Stefan Struve is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Roy Nelson | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 043 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.