June 14, 2013
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Roy Nelson | Stipe Miocic |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 110 | 1 148 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +47 |
Stipe Miocic overcame a 5-fight experience disadvantage (5 vs 10 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Roy Nelson.
| Metric | Roy Nelson | Stipe Miocic |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 054 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Roy Nelson | Stipe Miocic |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 374 | 1 253 |
| ELO Change | -68 | +68 |
Stipe Miocic earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Roy Nelson | Stipe Miocic |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 23 | 106 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 127 | 172 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 25 | 129 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 252 | 1 210 |
| ELO Change | -104 | +104 |
Stipe Miocic dominated the striking exchanges with 129 vs 25 total strikes, 106 vs 23 significant strikes, 61.6% vs 18.1% accuracy. Stipe Miocic capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Roy Nelson | Stipe Miocic |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:21 | 2:05 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 121 | 1 216 |
| ELO Change | -70 | +70 |
Stipe Miocic controlled Roy Nelson on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 2:05 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Roy Nelson | Stipe Miocic |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 49 | 259 |
| Activity ELO | 1 172 | 1 130 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +34 |
Stipe Miocic demonstrated standard activity with 259 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Stipe Miocic capitalized on this activity level, while Roy Nelson's 49-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Roy Nelson | Stipe Miocic |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 079 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +26 |
Stipe Miocic started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Roy Nelson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Roy Nelson | Stipe Miocic |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 053 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.