July 1, 2011
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ryan Bader | Tito Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 24 |
| Experience Gap | -17 | 17 |
| Experience ELO | 1 103 | 1 151 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Tito Ortiz's 17-fight experience advantage (24 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Tito Ortiz for the expected result. Had Ryan Bader pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ryan Bader | Tito Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 061 | 1 199 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ryan Bader | Tito Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:56 | 1:56 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 203 | 1 383 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +60 |
Tito Ortiz earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 1:56, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Ryan Bader | Tito Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 4 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 21 | 16 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 4 | 7 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 166 | 1 271 |
| ELO Change | -73 | +73 |
Tito Ortiz controlled the striking exchanges with 37.5% vs 19.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Tito Ortiz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Ryan Bader | Tito Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:09 | 0:06 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 064 | 1 293 |
| ELO Change | -91 | +91 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Ryan Bader | Tito Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 147 | 252 |
| Activity ELO | 1 133 | 1 321 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +15 |
Tito Ortiz demonstrated standard activity with 252 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Tito Ortiz capitalized on this activity level, while Ryan Bader's 147-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ryan Bader | Tito Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 093 | 1 173 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Tito Ortiz started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ryan Bader is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ryan Bader | Tito Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 056 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.