September 15, 2009
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ryan Jensen | Steve Steinbeiss |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 930 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -41 |
Ryan Jensen's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Ryan Jensen for the expected result. Had Steve Steinbeiss pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ryan Jensen | Steve Steinbeiss |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 968 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ryan Jensen | Steve Steinbeiss |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:56 | 3:56 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 000 | 948 |
| ELO Change | +86 | -52 |
Ryan Jensen earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:56, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Ryan Jensen | Steve Steinbeiss |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 9 | 7 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 17 | 19 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 22 | 14 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 977 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Ryan Jensen slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 52.9% vs 36.8% accuracy. Ryan Jensen capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Ryan Jensen | Steve Steinbeiss |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:10 | 0:19 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 043 | 831 |
| ELO Change | +169 | -169 |
Ryan Jensen dominated Steve Steinbeiss on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 2:10 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Ryan Jensen | Steve Steinbeiss |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 364 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 977 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Ryan Jensen demonstrated standard activity with 364 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Ryan Jensen capitalized on this activity level, while Steve Steinbeiss's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ryan Jensen | Steve Steinbeiss |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 973 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -24 |
Ryan Jensen started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Steve Steinbeiss is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ryan Jensen | Steve Steinbeiss |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 968 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.