August 24, 2007
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ryan Jensen | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 972 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Thales Leites's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thales Leites for the expected result. Had Ryan Jensen pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ryan Jensen | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ryan Jensen | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:47 | 3:47 |
| Win Type ELO | 968 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +54 |
Thales Leites earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:47, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Ryan Jensen | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 11 | 10 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 26 | 18 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 14 | 12 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 983 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Ryan Jensen controlled the striking through superior accuracy (42.3% vs 55.6%). However, since Ryan Jensen lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Thales Leites's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Ryan Jensen | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:40 | 1:13 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 959 | 1 231 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Thales Leites controlled Ryan Jensen on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 1:13 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Ryan Jensen | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 63 |
| Activity ELO | 984 | 1 130 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +48 |
Thales Leites demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 63 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Thales Leites capitalized on this activity level, while Ryan Jensen's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ryan Jensen | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 981 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +25 |
Thales Leites extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ryan Jensen is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ryan Jensen | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 980 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

