Ryan Jensen vs Thales Leites

August 24, 2007

Middleweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

976
(-24)
Ryan Jensen
Winner: Thales Leites
Submission
Round 1 • 3:47

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Ryan Jensen-24
Thales Leites+32
1099
(+32)
Thales Leites

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Ryan Jensen: -28Thales Leites: +28

Performance Statistics

MetricRyan JensenThales Leites
Total UFC Fights14
Experience Gap-33
Experience ELO9721 068
ELO Change-28+28
💡

What Happened

Thales Leites's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thales Leites for the expected result. Had Ryan Jensen pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Ryan Jensen: -20Thales Leites: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricRyan JensenThales Leites
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO9801 042
ELO Change-20+20
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Ryan Jensen: -32Thales Leites: +54

Performance Statistics

MetricRyan JensenThales Leites
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round11
Time of Finish3:473:47
Win Type ELO9681 134
ELO Change-32+54
💡

What Happened

Thales Leites earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:47, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Ryan Jensen: -17Thales Leites: +17

Performance Statistics

MetricRyan JensenThales Leites
Significant Strikes Landed1110
Significant Strikes Attempted2618
Total Strikes Landed1412
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO9831 092
ELO Change-17+17
💡

What Happened

Ryan Jensen controlled the striking through superior accuracy (42.3% vs 55.6%). However, since Ryan Jensen lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Thales Leites's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Ryan Jensen: -41Thales Leites: +41

Performance Statistics

MetricRyan JensenThales Leites
Takedowns Landed03
Takedowns Attempted04
Ground Control Time0:401:13
Ground Strikes Landed31
Ground ELO9591 231
ELO Change-41+41
💡

What Happened

Thales Leites controlled Ryan Jensen on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 1:13 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Ryan Jensen: -16Thales Leites: +48

Performance Statistics

MetricRyan JensenThales Leites
Days Since Last FightN/A63
Activity ELO9841 130
ELO Change-16+48
💡

What Happened

Thales Leites demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 63 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Thales Leites capitalized on this activity level, while Ryan Jensen's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Ryan Jensen: -19Thales Leites: +25

Performance Statistics

MetricRyan JensenThales Leites
Win Streak03
Win Streak ELO9811 053
ELO Change-19+25
💡

What Happened

Thales Leites extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ryan Jensen is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Ryan Jensen: -20Thales Leites: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricRyan JensenThales Leites
Weight ClassMiddleweightMiddleweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9801 042
ELO Change-20+20
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.