September 16, 2008
Middleweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ryan Jensen | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 889 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Wilson Gouveia's 4-fight experience advantage (7 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Wilson Gouveia for the expected result. Had Ryan Jensen pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ryan Jensen | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 944 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ryan Jensen | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:04 | 2:04 |
| Win Type ELO | 914 | 1 205 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +25 |
Wilson Gouveia earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:04, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Ryan Jensen was submitted.
| Metric | Ryan Jensen | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 30 | 8 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 72 | 19 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 45 | 8 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 941 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +11 |
Ryan Jensen controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (45 vs 8 total strikes), significant strike advantage (30 vs 8). However, since Ryan Jensen lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Wilson Gouveia's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Ryan Jensen | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:40 | 0:14 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 24 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 874 | 1 198 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Wilson Gouveia controlled Ryan Jensen on the ground with 1 takedown, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Ryan Jensen | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 333 | 116 |
| Activity ELO | 953 | 1 176 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +27 |
Wilson Gouveia demonstrated solid activity levels with 116 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Wilson Gouveia capitalized on this activity level, while Ryan Jensen's 333-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ryan Jensen | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 946 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +17 |
Wilson Gouveia started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ryan Jensen is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ryan Jensen | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 944 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.