March 6, 2009
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ryan Madigan | Tamdan McCrory |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 970 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Tamdan McCrory's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Tamdan McCrory for the expected result. Had Ryan Madigan pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ryan Madigan | Tamdan McCrory |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ryan Madigan | Tamdan McCrory |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:35 | 3:35 |
| Win Type ELO | 964 | 1 126 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +78 |
Tamdan McCrory earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:35, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Ryan Madigan | Tamdan McCrory |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 0 | 12 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 2 | 23 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 15 | 20 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 896 | 1 091 |
| ELO Change | -104 | +104 |
Tamdan McCrory edged the striking exchanges with 12 vs 0 significant strikes, 52.2% vs 0.0% accuracy. Tamdan McCrory capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Ryan Madigan | Tamdan McCrory |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 3:22 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 11 |
| Ground ELO | 920 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | -80 | +80 |
Tamdan McCrory controlled Ryan Madigan on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 3:22 of control time, 11 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Ryan Madigan | Tamdan McCrory |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 112 |
| Activity ELO | 980 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +50 |
Tamdan McCrory demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Tamdan McCrory capitalized on this activity level, while Ryan Madigan's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ryan Madigan | Tamdan McCrory |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 979 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Tamdan McCrory started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ryan Madigan is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ryan Madigan | Tamdan McCrory |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.