May 8, 2020
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ryan Spann | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 19 |
| Experience Gap | -15 | 15 |
| Experience ELO | 1 201 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -19 |
Ryan Spann overcame a 15-fight experience disadvantage (4 vs 19 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Sam Alvey.
| Metric | Ryan Spann | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 083 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ryan Spann | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 253 | 1 103 |
| ELO Change | +7 | -7 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Ryan Spann receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Ryan Spann | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 51 | 57 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 115 | 108 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 52 | 103 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 213 | 958 |
| ELO Change | +9 | -9 |
Sam Alvey controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (103 vs 52 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (57 vs 51). However, since Sam Alvey lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Ryan Spann's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Ryan Spann | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:01 | 0:29 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 176 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Ryan Spann edged out Sam Alvey on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 3:01 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Ryan Spann | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 210 | 294 |
| Activity ELO | 1 132 | 1 220 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -30 |
Ryan Spann demonstrated standard activity with 210 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Ryan Spann capitalized on this activity level, while Sam Alvey's 294-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ryan Spann | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 105 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -20 |
Ryan Spann extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Sam Alvey is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ryan Spann | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 082 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.