April 17, 2009
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ryo Chonan | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 921 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | -67 | +67 |
TJ Grant overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (1 vs 4 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Ryo Chonan.
| Metric | Ryo Chonan | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 967 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ryo Chonan | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 956 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +9 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with TJ Grant receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Ryo Chonan | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 31 | 34 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 75 | 76 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 53 | 98 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 956 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
TJ Grant controlled the striking exchanges with 98 vs 53 total strikes. TJ Grant capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Ryo Chonan | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 9:09 | 3:23 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 17 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 948 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
TJ Grant edged out Ryo Chonan on the ground with 3 vs 2 takedowns, 3:23 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Ryo Chonan | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 971 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
TJ Grant demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, TJ Grant capitalized on this activity level, while Ryo Chonan's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ryo Chonan | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 971 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +23 |
TJ Grant started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ryo Chonan is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ryo Chonan | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 967 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.