February 17, 2018
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Sage Northcutt | Thibault Gouti |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 109 | 943 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Sage Northcutt's 2-fight experience advantage (7 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Sage Northcutt for the expected result. Had Thibault Gouti pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Sage Northcutt | Thibault Gouti |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 052 | 950 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Sage Northcutt | Thibault Gouti |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 148 | 975 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Sage Northcutt earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Sage Northcutt | Thibault Gouti |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 63 | 28 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 138 | 66 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 125 | 30 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 126 | 867 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Sage Northcutt dominated the striking exchanges with 125 vs 30 total strikes, 63 vs 28 significant strikes. Sage Northcutt capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Sage Northcutt | Thibault Gouti |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 9 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:53 | 6:11 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 13 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 001 | 868 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Sage Northcutt slightly outworked Thibault Gouti on the ground with 1 takedown, 1:53 of control time, 13 ground strikes, earning modest grappling bonuses.
| Metric | Sage Northcutt | Thibault Gouti |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 99 | 170 |
| Activity ELO | 1 117 | 956 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -15 |
Sage Northcutt demonstrated solid activity levels with 99 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Sage Northcutt capitalized on this activity level, while Thibault Gouti's 170-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Sage Northcutt | Thibault Gouti |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 062 | 953 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -17 |
Sage Northcutt extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Thibault Gouti is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Sage Northcutt | Thibault Gouti |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 052 | 950 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

