Sage Northcutt vs Thibault Gouti

February 17, 2018

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1083
(+23)
Sage Northcutt
Winner: Sage Northcutt
Decision - Unanimous
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Sage Northcutt+23
Thibault Gouti-20
933
(-20)
Thibault Gouti

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Sage Northcutt: +21Thibault Gouti: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricSage NorthcuttThibault Gouti
Total UFC Fights75
Experience Gap2-2
Experience ELO1 109943
ELO Change+21-21
💡

What Happened

Sage Northcutt's 2-fight experience advantage (7 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Sage Northcutt for the expected result. Had Thibault Gouti pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Sage Northcutt: +17Thibault Gouti: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricSage NorthcuttThibault Gouti
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 052950
ELO Change+17-17
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Sage Northcutt: +29Thibault Gouti: -29

Performance Statistics

MetricSage NorthcuttThibault Gouti
Fight OutcomeDecision - UnanimousDecision - Unanimous
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 148975
ELO Change+29-29
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What Happened

Sage Northcutt earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Sage Northcutt: +23Thibault Gouti: -23

Performance Statistics

MetricSage NorthcuttThibault Gouti
Significant Strikes Landed6328
Significant Strikes Attempted13866
Total Strikes Landed12530
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 126867
ELO Change+23-23
💡

What Happened

Sage Northcutt dominated the striking exchanges with 125 vs 30 total strikes, 63 vs 28 significant strikes. Sage Northcutt capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Sage Northcutt: +24Thibault Gouti: -24

Performance Statistics

MetricSage NorthcuttThibault Gouti
Takedowns Landed14
Takedowns Attempted95
Ground Control Time1:536:11
Ground Strikes Landed133
Ground ELO1 001868
ELO Change+24-24
💡

What Happened

Sage Northcutt slightly outworked Thibault Gouti on the ground with 1 takedown, 1:53 of control time, 13 ground strikes, earning modest grappling bonuses.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Sage Northcutt: +37Thibault Gouti: -15

Performance Statistics

MetricSage NorthcuttThibault Gouti
Days Since Last Fight99170
Activity ELO1 117956
ELO Change+37-15
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What Happened

Sage Northcutt demonstrated solid activity levels with 99 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Sage Northcutt capitalized on this activity level, while Thibault Gouti's 170-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Sage Northcutt: +20Thibault Gouti: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricSage NorthcuttThibault Gouti
Win Streak20
Win Streak ELO1 062953
ELO Change+20-17
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What Happened

Sage Northcutt extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Thibault Gouti is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Sage Northcutt: +17Thibault Gouti: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricSage NorthcuttThibault Gouti
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 052950
ELO Change+17-17
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.