Sage Northcutt vs Zak Ottow

July 13, 2018

Welterweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1125
(+42)
Sage Northcutt
Winner: Sage Northcutt
KO/TKO
Round 2 • 3:13

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Sage Northcutt+42
Zak Ottow-34
1030
(-34)
Zak Ottow

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Sage Northcutt: +32Zak Ottow: -32

Performance Statistics

MetricSage NorthcuttZak Ottow
Total UFC Fights86
Experience Gap2-2
Experience ELO1 1411 086
ELO Change+32-32
💡

What Happened

Sage Northcutt's 2-fight experience advantage (8 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Sage Northcutt for the expected result. Had Zak Ottow pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Sage Northcutt: +19Zak Ottow: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricSage NorthcuttZak Ottow
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0711 008
ELO Change+19-19
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Sage Northcutt: +81Zak Ottow: -40

Performance Statistics

MetricSage NorthcuttZak Ottow
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round22
Time of Finish3:133:13
Win Type ELO1 2291 088
ELO Change+81-40
💡

What Happened

Sage Northcutt gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Sage Northcutt: +81Zak Ottow: -81

Performance Statistics

MetricSage NorthcuttZak Ottow
Significant Strikes Landed246
Significant Strikes Attempted3716
Total Strikes Landed3733
Knockdowns Scored11
Striking ELO1 207965
ELO Change+81-81
💡

What Happened

Sage Northcutt controlled the striking exchanges with 24 vs 6 significant strikes, 64.9% vs 37.5% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Sage Northcutt capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Sage Northcutt: +38Zak Ottow: -38

Performance Statistics

MetricSage NorthcuttZak Ottow
Takedowns Landed11
Takedowns Attempted14
Ground Control Time1:335:16
Ground Strikes Landed74
Ground ELO1 039997
ELO Change+38-38
💡

What Happened

Sage Northcutt landed 1 knockdown followed by 7 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Sage Northcutt: +39Zak Ottow: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricSage NorthcuttZak Ottow
Days Since Last Fight146133
Activity ELO1 1561 072
ELO Change+39-19
💡

What Happened

Sage Northcutt demonstrated solid activity levels with 146 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Sage Northcutt capitalized on this activity level, while Zak Ottow's 133-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Sage Northcutt: +25Zak Ottow: -20

Performance Statistics

MetricSage NorthcuttZak Ottow
Win Streak30
Win Streak ELO1 0871 018
ELO Change+25-20
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What Happened

Sage Northcutt extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Zak Ottow is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Sage Northcutt: +19Zak Ottow: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricSage NorthcuttZak Ottow
Weight ClassWelterweightWelterweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0711 008
ELO Change+19-19
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.