July 13, 2018
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Sage Northcutt | Zak Ottow |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 141 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Sage Northcutt's 2-fight experience advantage (8 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Sage Northcutt for the expected result. Had Zak Ottow pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Sage Northcutt | Zak Ottow |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 071 | 1 008 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Sage Northcutt | Zak Ottow |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:13 | 3:13 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 229 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | +81 | -40 |
Sage Northcutt gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Sage Northcutt | Zak Ottow |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 24 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 37 | 16 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 37 | 33 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 207 | 965 |
| ELO Change | +81 | -81 |
Sage Northcutt controlled the striking exchanges with 24 vs 6 significant strikes, 64.9% vs 37.5% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Sage Northcutt capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Sage Northcutt | Zak Ottow |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:33 | 5:16 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 7 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 039 | 997 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Sage Northcutt landed 1 knockdown followed by 7 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Sage Northcutt | Zak Ottow |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 146 | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 1 156 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -19 |
Sage Northcutt demonstrated solid activity levels with 146 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Sage Northcutt capitalized on this activity level, while Zak Ottow's 133-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Sage Northcutt | Zak Ottow |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 087 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -20 |
Sage Northcutt extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Zak Ottow is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Sage Northcutt | Zak Ottow |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 071 | 1 008 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

