January 21, 2022
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Saimon Oliveira | Tony Gravely |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 970 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Tony Gravely's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Tony Gravely for the expected result. Had Saimon Oliveira pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Saimon Oliveira | Tony Gravely |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Saimon Oliveira | Tony Gravely |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 963 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Tony Gravely earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Saimon Oliveira | Tony Gravely |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 35 | 46 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 71 | 99 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 50 | 66 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 975 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Tony Gravely edged the striking exchanges with 46 vs 35 significant strikes. Tony Gravely capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Saimon Oliveira | Tony Gravely |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 11 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 15 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:15 | 11:28 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 18 |
| Ground ELO | 895 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | -105 | +105 |
Tony Gravely dominated Saimon Oliveira on the ground with 11 vs 0 takedowns, 11:28 of control time, 18 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Saimon Oliveira | Tony Gravely |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 127 |
| Activity ELO | 980 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +39 |
Tony Gravely demonstrated solid activity levels with 127 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Tony Gravely capitalized on this activity level, while Saimon Oliveira's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Saimon Oliveira | Tony Gravely |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 980 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +23 |
Tony Gravely started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Saimon Oliveira is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Saimon Oliveira | Tony Gravely |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.