Sam Alvey vs Thales Leites

April 21, 2017

Middleweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1166
(-27)
Sam Alvey
Winner: Thales Leites
Decision - Unanimous
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Sam Alvey-27
Thales Leites+30
1208
(+30)
Thales Leites

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Sam Alvey: -35Thales Leites: +35

Performance Statistics

MetricSam AlveyThales Leites
Total UFC Fights1118
Experience Gap-77
Experience ELO1 1341 169
ELO Change-35+35
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What Happened

Thales Leites's 7-fight experience advantage (18 vs 11 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thales Leites for the expected result. Had Sam Alvey pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Sam Alvey: -21Thales Leites: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricSam AlveyThales Leites
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0641 109
ELO Change-21+21
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Sam Alvey: -42Thales Leites: +42

Performance Statistics

MetricSam AlveyThales Leites
Fight OutcomeDecision - UnanimousDecision - Unanimous
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 2831 368
ELO Change-42+42
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What Happened

Thales Leites earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Sam Alvey: -29Thales Leites: +29

Performance Statistics

MetricSam AlveyThales Leites
Significant Strikes Landed2738
Significant Strikes Attempted8968
Total Strikes Landed5044
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 1901 206
ELO Change-29+29
💡

What Happened

Thales Leites edged the striking exchanges with 38 vs 27 significant strikes, 55.9% vs 30.3% accuracy. Thales Leites capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Sam Alvey: -29Thales Leites: +29

Performance Statistics

MetricSam AlveyThales Leites
Takedowns Landed01
Takedowns Attempted07
Ground Control Time0:211:38
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO1 1831 251
ELO Change-29+29
💡

What Happened

Thales Leites slightly outworked Sam Alvey on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:38 of control time, earning modest grappling bonuses.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Sam Alvey: -26Thales Leites: +46

Performance Statistics

MetricSam AlveyThales Leites
Days Since Last Fight84154
Activity ELO1 3101 296
ELO Change-26+46
💡

What Happened

Thales Leites demonstrated solid activity levels with 154 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Thales Leites capitalized on this activity level, while Sam Alvey's 84-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Sam Alvey: -19Thales Leites: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricSam AlveyThales Leites
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO1 0971 163
ELO Change-19+21
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What Happened

Thales Leites started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Sam Alvey is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Sam Alvey: -21Thales Leites: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricSam AlveyThales Leites
Weight ClassMiddleweightMiddleweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0641 104
ELO Change-21+21
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.