April 21, 2017
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Sam Alvey | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 18 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 134 | 1 169 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Thales Leites's 7-fight experience advantage (18 vs 11 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thales Leites for the expected result. Had Sam Alvey pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Sam Alvey | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 064 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Sam Alvey | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 283 | 1 368 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +42 |
Thales Leites earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Sam Alvey | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 27 | 38 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 89 | 68 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 50 | 44 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 190 | 1 206 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Thales Leites edged the striking exchanges with 38 vs 27 significant strikes, 55.9% vs 30.3% accuracy. Thales Leites capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Sam Alvey | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:21 | 1:38 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 183 | 1 251 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Thales Leites slightly outworked Sam Alvey on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:38 of control time, earning modest grappling bonuses.
| Metric | Sam Alvey | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 84 | 154 |
| Activity ELO | 1 310 | 1 296 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +46 |
Thales Leites demonstrated solid activity levels with 154 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Thales Leites capitalized on this activity level, while Sam Alvey's 84-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Sam Alvey | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 097 | 1 163 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Thales Leites started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Sam Alvey is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Sam Alvey | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 064 | 1 104 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

