Sam Alvey vs Tom Watson

August 15, 2014

Middleweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

974
(-26)
Sam Alvey
Winner: Tom Watson
Decision - Unanimous
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Sam Alvey-26
Tom Watson+27
1009
(+27)
Tom Watson

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Sam Alvey: -35Tom Watson: +35

Performance Statistics

MetricSam AlveyTom Watson
Total UFC Fights15
Experience Gap-44
Experience ELO965992
ELO Change-35+35
💡

What Happened

Tom Watson's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Tom Watson for the expected result. Had Sam Alvey pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Sam Alvey: -23Tom Watson: +23

Performance Statistics

MetricSam AlveyTom Watson
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO977988
ELO Change-23+23
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Sam Alvey: -34Tom Watson: +34

Performance Statistics

MetricSam AlveyTom Watson
Fight OutcomeDecision - UnanimousDecision - Unanimous
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO9661 102
ELO Change-34+34
💡

What Happened

Tom Watson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Sam Alvey: -18Tom Watson: +18

Performance Statistics

MetricSam AlveyTom Watson
Significant Strikes Landed8285
Significant Strikes Attempted168167
Total Strikes Landed9186
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO9821 068
ELO Change-18+18
💡

What Happened

Tom Watson slightly outperformed the striking exchanges. Tom Watson capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Sam Alvey: -31Tom Watson: +31

Performance Statistics

MetricSam AlveyTom Watson
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted04
Ground Control Time0:261:29
Ground Strikes Landed20
Ground ELO969917
ELO Change-31+31
💡

What Happened

Tom Watson did not secure a significant ground advantage against Sam Alvey on the ground with 1:29 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Sam Alvey: -21Tom Watson: +27

Performance Statistics

MetricSam AlveyTom Watson
Days Since Last FightN/A196
Activity ELO9791 020
ELO Change-21+27
💡

What Happened

Tom Watson demonstrated standard activity with 196 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Tom Watson capitalized on this activity level, while Sam Alvey's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Sam Alvey: -23Tom Watson: +25

Performance Statistics

MetricSam AlveyTom Watson
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO977995
ELO Change-23+25
💡

What Happened

Tom Watson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Sam Alvey is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Sam Alvey: -23Tom Watson: +23

Performance Statistics

MetricSam AlveyTom Watson
Weight ClassMiddleweightMiddleweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO977987
ELO Change-23+23
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.