August 15, 2014
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Sam Alvey | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 965 | 992 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Tom Watson's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Tom Watson for the expected result. Had Sam Alvey pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Sam Alvey | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 977 | 988 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Sam Alvey | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 966 | 1 102 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Tom Watson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Sam Alvey | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 82 | 85 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 168 | 167 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 91 | 86 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 982 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Tom Watson slightly outperformed the striking exchanges. Tom Watson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Sam Alvey | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:26 | 1:29 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 969 | 917 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Tom Watson did not secure a significant ground advantage against Sam Alvey on the ground with 1:29 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Sam Alvey | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 196 |
| Activity ELO | 979 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +27 |
Tom Watson demonstrated standard activity with 196 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Tom Watson capitalized on this activity level, while Sam Alvey's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Sam Alvey | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 977 | 995 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +25 |
Tom Watson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Sam Alvey is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Sam Alvey | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 977 | 987 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

