August 27, 2021
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Sam Alvey | Wellington Turman |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 22 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 17 | -17 |
| Experience ELO | 942 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +71 |
Wellington Turman overcame a 17-fight experience disadvantage (5 vs 22 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Sam Alvey.
| Metric | Sam Alvey | Wellington Turman |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 964 | 984 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Sam Alvey | Wellington Turman |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 048 | 985 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Wellington Turman receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Sam Alvey | Wellington Turman |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 68 | 69 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 122 | 119 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 114 | 75 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 883 | 879 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Sam Alvey controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (114 vs 75 total strikes). However, since Sam Alvey lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Wellington Turman's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Sam Alvey | Wellington Turman |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 9 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:54 | 2:54 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 864 | 991 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Wellington Turman edged out Sam Alvey on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 2:54 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Sam Alvey | Wellington Turman |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 140 | 70 |
| Activity ELO | 1 149 | 1 085 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +94 |
Wellington Turman demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 70 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Wellington Turman capitalized on this activity level, while Sam Alvey's 140-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Sam Alvey | Wellington Turman |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 990 | 992 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +26 |
Wellington Turman started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Sam Alvey is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Sam Alvey | Wellington Turman |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 963 | 983 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.