March 15, 2025
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Sam Hughes | Stephanie Luciano |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 8 | -8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 052 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Sam Hughes's 8-fight experience advantage (10 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Sam Hughes for the expected result. Had Stephanie Luciano pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Sam Hughes | Stephanie Luciano |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 021 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Sam Hughes | Stephanie Luciano |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 015 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Sam Hughes receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Sam Hughes | Stephanie Luciano |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 76 | 82 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 152 | 251 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 146 | 101 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 071 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Sam Hughes controlled the striking exchanges with 146 vs 101 total strikes, 76 vs 82 significant strikes, 50.0% vs 32.7% accuracy. Sam Hughes capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Sam Hughes | Stephanie Luciano |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 8 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:21 | 1:15 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 135 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +80 | -80 |
Sam Hughes controlled Stephanie Luciano on the ground with 3 vs 1 takedowns, 4:21 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Sam Hughes | Stephanie Luciano |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 225 | 218 |
| Activity ELO | 1 135 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -15 |
Sam Hughes demonstrated standard activity with 225 days since her last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Sam Hughes capitalized on this activity level, while Stephanie Luciano's 218-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Sam Hughes | Stephanie Luciano |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 036 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -22 |
Sam Hughes extended her 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Stephanie Luciano is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Sam Hughes | Stephanie Luciano |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 021 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.