January 13, 2012
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Sam Stout | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 062 | 1 048 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +39 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (12 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Sam Stout | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 017 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Sam Stout | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 165 | 1 211 |
| ELO Change | -48 | +48 |
Thiago Tavares earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Sam Stout | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 45 | 50 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 172 | 128 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 52 | 57 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 163 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Thiago Tavares slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 50 vs 45 significant strikes, 39.1% vs 26.2% accuracy. Thiago Tavares capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Sam Stout | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 11 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:21 | 2:24 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 966 | 1 225 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
Thiago Tavares edged out Sam Stout on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 2:24 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Sam Stout | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 218 | 141 |
| Activity ELO | 1 084 | 1 161 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +40 |
Thiago Tavares demonstrated solid activity levels with 141 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Tavares capitalized on this activity level, while Sam Stout's 218-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Sam Stout | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 039 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +26 |
Thiago Tavares extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Sam Stout is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Sam Stout | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 017 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

